Research Themes

The 5-year project for this research chair will significantly improve our understanding of the impacts of climate change and hydrometeorological extremes on water security across the Nechako Watershed.

The overarching objective motivating this program of research is: To better understand and quantify the roles of climate change and hydrometeorological extremes on the long-term water security of the Nechako Watershed.

To address this broad objective, three main themes are proposed: 1) hydrometeorological extremes including droughts and atmospheric rivers, 2) microclimates and climate change in the Vanderhoof agricultural belt, and 3) variability and predictability of water temperatures. Research on these themes will span from the headwaters of the Nechako Watershed to the Nechako River's confluence with the Fraser River in Prince George.

To read more about each of the projects listed below, click on its title

Theme 1: Hydrometeorological Extremes Including Droughts and Atmospheric Rivers

Theme 1 will utilize, in part, high frequency hydrometeorological data collected by our "Monitoring Extreme Climate and Hydrometeorological Extremes" or MECHE observatory at Huckleberry Mines near Tahtsa Narrows in the upper Nechako Watershed in addition to other resources. Additional monitoring equipment will be set up during fall 2025 to obtain more detailed information on atmospheric moisture fluxes to the upper Nechako Watershed and their relationship to precipitation distribution on both the windward and leeward slopes of the Coast Mountains. Another aspect of this theme will be an investigation of the 2022-2024 drought across the Nechako Watershed and placing this event into a historical context and assessing potential future drought occurrences.

  • 1.1: Atmospheric Rivers and Heavy Precipitation in the Upper Nechako Watershed

    The Coast Mountains, one of the wettest regions on the planet, form a generally north-south barrier to the predominant westerlies affecting this mid-latitude region. Due to the Pacific Ocean's proximity, orographic forcing, and wind channeling, the Coast Mountains exhibit extreme precipitation and runoff gradients. This study will compare and contrast atmospheric conditions accompanying heavy precipitation events in the upper Nechako Watershed. Specifically, we will establish the main synoptic patterns that induce heavy precipitation on the western and eastern slopes of the upper Nechako Watershed. A focus will be on precipitation associated with atmospheric rivers, including the orientation of moisture axes in relation to mountain valleys and gaps.

    Key questions are:
    1) How far inland and at what levels in the atmosphere do landfalling atmospheric rivers advect moisture across the coastal mountain barrier, spreading precipitation into the upper Nechako Watershed and other leeward sites including the relatively dry Interior Plateau?
    2) Are easterly (upslope) flows key in developing precipitation on the leeward side of the Coast Mountains or are they relatively inconsequential in the overall precipitation climatology?
    3) Is convective precipitation important in the upper Nechako Watershed?
    4) What role does local moisture recycling versus remote advection play in precipitation formation and distribution in the upper Nechako Watershed?

    This will yield important knowledge on the spatio-temporal patterns of precipitation and its generation mechanisms in the Coast Mountains of the upper Nechako Watershed.

  • 1.2: Investigation of the 2022-2024 Drought Across the Nechako Watershed

    A second project under Theme 1 will involve an investigation of the 2022-2024 drought across the Nechako Watershed. This will first require characterizing the environmental conditions, at various spatial and temporal scales, that led to the persistent drought conditions. We will explore sea-surface temperature (SST) and large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns during the drought to detect any influences of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern on storm track activity and precipitation distribution.

    Meteorological drought will then be quantified through precipitation deficits across the Nechako Watershed with impacts to snowpacks, soil moisture, lakes, reservoirs and rivers. Hydrological drought characterization will consist of assessing anomalies in water levels in lakes and reservoirs and discharge in rivers and creeks relative to long-term means. Detection of agricultural drought will focus on soil moisture anomalies using the ERA5-Land reanalysis data relative to long-term values.

    After characterizing the 2022-2024 drought, this extreme hydroclimatic event will be placed into a historical context. We will compare the duration, intensity, severity and areal extent of the 2022-2024 drought to past drought events spanning 1950 to present using the ERA5-Land reanalysis. The next step will involve an exploration of the potential for future droughts across the Nechako Watershed. This will make use of climate projections data available through the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium.

Theme 2: Microclimates and Climate Change in the Vanderhoof Agricultural Belt

Theme 2 will address climate change and microclimates in the Nechako Valley spanning Fraser Lake to Prince George. This area has seen a rapid intensification of agricultural activity in the past decades. While the general climate of the Vanderhoof agricultural belt is well known, details on the region's microclimates are lacking. As climate change continues to intensify, it is particularly important to understand the high-resolution variability of climatic conditions in the Nechako Valley. This will guide the agricultural and ranching industries in terms of viable crops for the region, irrigation needs, and potential for frost damage including within soils, among other issues.

  • 2.1: Microclimates of the Vanderhoof Agricultural Belt

    The Vanderhoof agricultural belt (VAB) forms one of the most productive agricultural areas in the province of British Columbia, Canada. Despite its importance to provincial food security, details on its microclimates in the context of a rapidly changing climate remain poorly quantified and understood. Local knowledge suggests there is marked variability in meteorological conditions across the VAB with air temperature, precipitation and wind patterns showing steep gradients across the region.

    This project will therefore explore the spatio-temporal variability of the VAB's microclimates using both in-situ data and high-resolution reanalyses such as ERA5-Land. Relationships between the region's microclimates and landcover type (e.g., open water, forests), topography (e.g., elevation, slope) and land uses will be explored. Trends in climatic variables from the 1950s to present will be investigated to assess potential relationships with land use changes and landcover disturbances. As well, there is potential to explore the accuracy of local weather forecasts from various sources in representing regional microclimates to provide better resources for the VAB's agricultural and ranching industries.

Theme 3: Variability and Predictability of Water Temperatures

Theme 3 will tackle several topics related to the spatio-temporal variability of freshwater temperatures across the Nechako Watershed. Here, we will maintain and expand our water temperature monitoring efforts across the entire Nechako Watershed. Measurements collected through this network of water temperature loggers will form part of the database to be used by an MSc student who will explore the spatio-temporal variability in water temperatures across the Nechako Watershed. As well, these and other real-time data will be used in a water temperature forecasting model for the Cheslatta and Nechako Rivers along with their primary tributaries.

  • 3.1: Spatio-temporal Variability of Water Temperatures Across the Nechako Watershed

    The temporal evolution and spatial patterns of water temperatures are critical features affecting the distribution and well-being of keystone aquatic species such as rainbow trout, sockeye salmon, Chinook salmon and white sturgeon of the Nechako Watershed. Multiple First Nations across the Nechako Watershed rely on healthy fish as a principal food source while commercial and recreational fishing also remain quite active on the waterways and water bodies of the Nechako. Thus, understanding how water temperatures evolve in response to climate change and hydrometeorological extremes remains critical.

    Relying on a monitoring network we initiated in 2019, this project will make use of water temperature measurements collected at >30 sites across the Nechako Watershed in addition to data collected by other agencies including the Water Survey of Canada, the Province of BC, and Rio Tinto. The project will involve a spatio-temporal analysis of water temperature variability across the entire Nechako Watershed. Specifically, analyses will be conducted to assess mean annual and monthly water temperatures, extreme conditions, and exceedances above critical values such as 20°C. This will include a review of the Summer Temperature Management Project (STMP) that mandates Rio Tinto to release additional water at the Skins Lake Spillway when water temperatures on the main stem Nechako River near Finmoore approach 20°C between 20 July and 20 August each year.

    Furthermore, efforts will be dedicated to understand the response of freshwater to extreme hydrometeorological events such as the 2021 heat dome, the 2022-2024 persistent drought and to landfalling atmospheric rivers in the upper Nechako Watershed.

  • 3.2: Real-time Water Temperature Monitoring and Forecasting Network

    A second component of Theme 3 will involve the implementation of a real-time water temperature monitoring network for the Nechako Watershed. The first step towards this process will be to convert existing monitoring sites to provide real-time data that would then be used to generate a map of current water temperatures across the Nechako Watershed. Real-time water temperature data would then be used to develop a forecasting system to predict conditions over the next five days for the main stem Nechako River (from Cheslatta Falls to Prince George) and its main tributaries.

    This forecasting system will involve the application of the Air2Stream water temperature model driven by forecasts of air temperature and river discharge. This will provide valuable information for fisheries management, First Nations communities, and other stakeholders who depend on healthy aquatic ecosystems in the Nechako Watershed.